LAUR Q1 Earnings Call: Digital Enrollment and Operational Resilience Offset Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Higher education company Laureate Education (NASDAQ:LAUR) reported Q1 CY2025 results beating Wall Street’s revenue expectations, but sales fell by 14.2% year on year to $236.2 million. The company expects the full year’s revenue to be around $1.57 billion, close to analysts’ estimates. Its non-GAAP loss of $0.13 per share was 31.6% above analysts’ consensus estimates.

Is now the time to buy LAUR? Find out in our full research report (it’s free).

StockStory’s Take

Laureate Education’s first quarter results reflected the impact of seasonality and shifting enrollment cycles, with revenue and adjusted EBITDA outperforming Wall Street expectations despite a double-digit year-over-year decline in reported sales. Management attributed these results to strong enrollment growth in both Mexico and Peru, particularly in fully online programs targeting working adults. CEO Eilif Serck-Hanssen emphasized that the company’s performance demonstrates the resilience of its business model, noting that new enrollment growth was 8% in Mexico and 6% in Peru for the intake cycles completed by mid-April.

Looking ahead, Laureate Education’s forward guidance is shaped by increased visibility following the completion of recent intake cycles. Management slightly raised full-year revenue and EBITDA guidance, citing continued demand for affordable, quality higher education, even as macroeconomic uncertainty persists. CFO Rick Buskirk highlighted that ongoing campus consolidations in Mexico should drive margin improvements, while the growing contribution of digital learning programs is expected to further support enrollment and operational efficiency. The company remains cautious about foreign exchange volatility but believes its locally matched revenues and expenses insulate core operations from major currency risks.

Key Insights from Management’s Remarks

Laureate Education’s Q1 performance was influenced by timing shifts in academic cycles, robust digital program adoption, and continued focus on operational efficiency. These factors helped offset persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and temporary headwinds in Mexico and Peru.

• Enrollment Growth in Digital Programs: Management reported that fully online courses experienced double-digit growth in both Mexico and Peru, outpacing traditional face-to-face programs by a factor of three to four. CEO Eilif Serck-Hanssen described digital education as the main channel for accessing working adult students, and noted that about 20% of total enrollment is now fully online.
• Academic Calendar Shift Impact: CFO Rick Buskirk explained that later semester starts, especially in Peru, shifted approximately $26 million in revenue and $23 million in adjusted EBITDA from Q1 to later quarters. This timing effect was a key reason for the year-over-year revenue decline, despite underlying enrollment strength.
• Campus Consolidations in Mexico: The company is streamlining its physical campus footprint in Mexico, expecting a one-time revenue loss but improved margins going forward. Management anticipates that these consolidations will drive efficiency and support margin expansion throughout 2025.
• Resilience Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds: Serck-Hanssen stressed that demand for higher education remains steady, even in uncertain economic environments, as families prioritize education. Both Mexico and Peru are experiencing stable or improving macro backdrops, though management is monitoring trade and currency risks.
• Capital Return Priorities: Laureate continued to repurchase shares during the quarter and plans to return excess cash to shareholders. Management reaffirmed its commitment to a capital return policy tied to free cash flow generation, with the current buyback program nearly halfway complete at quarter-end.

Drivers of Future Performance

Management’s outlook for 2025 centers on the continued expansion of digital enrollment, operational streamlining, and careful navigation of external volatility, with a focus on margin improvement and cash flow conversion.

• Digital Program Expansion: The company sees fully online programs as a core growth engine, particularly among working adults. Management expects this segment to drive further enrollment gains and operational leverage.
• Operational Efficiency Initiatives: Campus consolidations and cost control measures, especially in Mexico, are expected to support margin expansion throughout the year, counterbalancing isolated revenue losses from footprint reduction.
• Macroeconomic and FX Uncertainty: Management highlighted ongoing risks from foreign exchange volatility and trade developments, especially in Mexico. The company’s locally matched revenue and expense structures help mitigate transaction exposure, but reported results remain sensitive to translation effects.

Top Analyst Questions

• Jeffrey Silber (BMO Capital Markets): Asked about potential student hesitancy given the uncertain economic environment in Mexico. CEO Eilif Serck-Hanssen explained that working adult enrollments remain robust and expects the main fall intake to reflect last year’s trends.
• Mauricio Cepeda (Morgan Stanley): Sought clarity on the timing and normalization of intake cycles, noting the impact of the later start in Peru. CFO Rick Buskirk confirmed that only a two-week academic delay in Peru required normalization, with no other adjustments.
• Mauricio Cepeda (Morgan Stanley): Also questioned the choice to maintain a conservative foreign exchange rate in guidance despite recent peso strength. Buskirk cited high FX volatility as the reason for using the previously guided rate.
• Yan Banco (BTG Pactual): Inquired about the breakdown and momentum of fully digital courses. CEO Serck-Hanssen detailed strong double-digit growth in digital programs and market leadership in Mexico and Peru.
• Yan Banco (BTG Pactual): Asked about capital allocation and share buybacks. Serck-Hanssen reiterated the commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, with the current buyback program ongoing and future actions pending board review.

Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters

In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) whether digital program enrollment continues to accelerate, particularly among working adults in Mexico and Peru; (2) the effectiveness of campus consolidations in driving margin improvements and operational efficiency; and (3) the company’s ability to navigate macroeconomic and foreign exchange headwinds without disrupting enrollment or resource allocation. Continued execution on capital return plans and digital platform expansion will also be key signposts for sustained performance.

Laureate Education currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15×. Should you load up, cash out, or stay put? Find out in our free research report.

High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions

Market indices reached historic highs following Donald Trump’s presidential victory in November 2024, but the outlook for 2025 is clouded by new trade policies that could impact business confidence and growth.

While this has caused many investors to adopt a "fearful" wait-and-see approach, we’re leaning into our best ideas that can grow regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate. Take advantage of Mr. Market by checking out our Top 6 Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 176% over the last five years.

Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,545% between March 2020 and March 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-micro-cap company Tecnoglass (+1,754% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.